McDonald's to raise prices

The nation's largest hamburger chain plans to hike prices by 3-5% in Tokyo, Osaka and other large cities where it faces higher personnel costs and shop rental fees, the officials said. (read more...)

Composite Index

"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving." - Lau Tze

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor the water level of 1352.44 for direction.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor the KEY water level of 1352.44 for the KEY direction.

Composite Index

"Be still like a mountain and flow like a great river." - Lao Tse

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1362.73 & 1373.01 for direction.

Composite Index

“When spring comes the grass grows by itself.” (Source: Tao Te Ching)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1373.01 and 1406.31 for direction.

Telefónica may sell first yen-denominated bonds

MADRID: Telefónica, the most indebted of the European telephone companies, is considering selling its first bonds in Japanese yen and plans notes in dollars to reduce reliance on European investors to refinance its €51.9 billion in debt. "Telefónica's debt has gotten high after the merger of O2," said Koji Mori, who oversees mutual funds at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo. "But if the company would give attractive yields to us, we would consider buying the bonds." Telefónica's yen bonds would probably receive an investment-grade ranking of A- in Japan, said Fernández Valbuena, citing discussions with a domestic ratings firm. (read more...)

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1406.31 for direction.

Japan Upper House Elections, July 29 2007

TOKYO: Japan's parliament extended the current legislative session on Friday, officials said, giving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe time to pass legislation aimed at boosting his popularity ahead of upper house elections next month.

The LDP and its New Komei coalition partner together have a majority in the largely ceremonial 242-seat upper house. But a significant loss to the coalition would affect its representation in parliamentary committees, hampering its efforts to get bills passed. It could also seriously weaken Abe's standing and prompt party elders to seek a replacement. (Source: The Associated Press)

Forex: USD/JPY And Carry Trade

If you've been watching the Japanese yen lately, you know that it has weakened significantly in the past two weeks. And yesterday (June 20), it dropped to its "weakest in more than four years versus the dollar and fell to near a record low against the euro." (Bloomberg)

The beneficiary of this weakness, in theory, has been the now famous carry trade, a popular way for big market players to take advantage of global inefficiencies. Carry trades came into being circa 1999, and they are not to be underestimated. Word on the street is that they are a big reason why global stocks have rallied over the past four years. And a sudden drop in their volume was rumored to be the reason for the global "mini-crash" on February 27.

Both of these conditions are now under threat, say many analysts. The Bank of Japan plans to continue "gradually" raising rates, shrinking the interest rate gap between Japan and the rest of the world. And higher rates might strengthen the JPY, further discouraging carry traders. Some analysts expect the yen to strengthen to 118-115 JPY per USD in a matter of months. That's 6 to 9 figures below this week's USD/JPY high of 123.74. Big move.

Perhaps that's why our present Elliott wave count for the USD/JPY is not nearly as bearish as the fundamentals may suggest. The latest weekly chart from our Currency Specialty Service suggests that the USD/JPY may be in a complex correction (likely a "triple zigzag") – and what's in store are higher, not lower prices. (read more...)

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1406.31 for direction.

The Last Samurai

Citigroup offers biggest ever Samurai bond issue
TOKYO, June 14 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile , Research) has offered six tranches of Samurai bonds totaling 270 billion yen ($2.2 billion), the largest Samurai bond issuance ever, lead manager Nikko Citigroup said on Thursday. Combined with the latest Samurai issuance, the total amount of Citigroup's yen-denominated bonds is expected to be 400 billion yen and the biggest yen-denominated issue, topping Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd.'s (6752.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) 300 billion yen issue in 2002, the Nikkei business daily said on Thursday. Samurai bonds are yen bonds issued in Japan by non-Japanese entities. (Source: Reuters)

FOREX-Low yield keeps yen near 4-1/2-yr trough vs dollar
TOKYO, June 21 (Reuters) - The yen hung near a 4-1/2-year low versus the dollar on Thursday, weighed down as investors continued to use the currency to buy higher-yielding units such as the New Zealand dollar in carry trades.

The Bank of Japan is expected to boost interest rates as early as August, but the interest rate differential with other countries is still wide enough to feed Japanese investor appetite for higher-yielding foreign assets, he said. (Source: Reuters)

Technical Note: See the game the BOJ is playing? They are using this Samurai Bond to depress the US/Yen Rate in order to benefit the export sector. I think economically a Samurai Bond is a government induced Capital Flight. Happy reading.

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1373.01 water level today (Thur) trading.

It is quoted in Bloomberg that {USA 10-Year Bond 95.03} vs { JPN 10-Year Bond 98.93}, a GAP of 390 basis points and I think the big boy is able to Carry Trade the GAP for window shopping for sometimes. See the big picture? Happy reading.

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1373.01 water level today (Wed) and tomorrow (Thru) trading. The trend is your friend and follow the footprint of smart money because they can hide their news but they cannot hide their moves.

Please also support our friend Mr. Joma's website: http://hotstocks.com.my and find out what is the hottest stock in town. Check it out. Happy reading.

Samsung of Malaysia, Hong Leong

South Korea icon is Samsung. Samsung started from Brevery, sugar refinery, textile, paper pulp and packaging, electrical appliance, Semiconductor and handphone. While Robert Kwok in Malaysia start from sugar refinery, like Samsung. He later invest his wealth in leisure industry and not manufacturing like Samsung. In Malaysia, one company that venture into paper pulp and packaging, electrical appliance and semiconductor industry is Hong Leong Group in Malaysia.

Clearly, Malaysia have a lot of catch up to do. However, Hong Leong have the foundation which make the catch up much more easy compare with other group. Government should provide incentive for such group to merge, to venture to audio division, to take over loss making government semiconductor manufacturing division and to venture to cell phone manufacturing. (Read more...)

Technical Note: If you think highly about our Vision 2020 and looking for a good proxy for this economic story, this company should be a good bet. Hong Leong Industries Bhd (3301) Entry RM5.10 Stop RM4.6

Alan Greenspan the Contrarian

The former chairman’s perspectives are truly special.
In later years, Greenspan would control such quibbles; not this day. He replied to Proxmire: “That is not my recollection of the way the forecasts went.” Proxmire held the forecasts in his hand and read the date to Greenspan. The candidate admitted: “Well, if they’re written down, those are the numbers.”

The transcript follows:

PROXMIRE: Yes.

GREENSPAN: There is a very substantial difference, Senator, between forecasting in the administration and forecasting outside.

PROXMIRE: I should hope so!

Greenspan then embarked on the gobbledygook so familiar in later years. Proxmire waited patiently and then responded:

PROXMIRE: Every one of the chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers had the same problem, and they didn’t miss by as much as you did, not nearly as much…

GREENSPAN: I feel sorry for me and happy for them.

(Read More ...)

ZenTrader's Note: Even the most powerful banker on earth also got himself wrong most of the time as far as predicting the future event is concerned. Happy reading.

Composite Index

Michael Lewis shows us how things really worked on Wall Street. In the Salomon training program a roomful of aspirants is stunned speechless by the vitriolic profanity of the Human Piranha; out on the trading floor, bond traders throw telephones at the heads of underlings and Salomon chairman Gutfreund challenges his chief trader to a hand of liar's poker for one million dollars; around the world in London, Tokyo, and New York, bright young men like Michael Lewis, connected by telephones and computer terminals, swap gross jokes and find retail buyers for the staggering debt of individual companies or whole countries. (Source: Liar's Poker)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1373.01 for direction. Mr. Guest commented today that our market is full of faked news and my own view is that the smart money can hide any news, but it is not so easy to hide their footprint. See the big picture? Happy reading.

Composite Index

Both knowledge and experience are real, but reality has many forms, which seem to cause complexity. (Taoism)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1373.01 for direction.

Composite Index

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1352.44 & 1373.01 for direction. My own view is that the longer the sideway movement the breakout will be very powerful. Which way? I think my answer will be as good as your own answer. Just take note Mr. Fab posted to say: "...astrologer caution beware of dates between 19 -25 june. Just be careful.. folks. I did not listen in 1997." From time to time we all here have been very lucky that someone very special will dropby and tell us something very important.

Also Mr. Joma, all of us here is very proud of you and your web project. Maybe you will become the next Internet Tycoon in Malaysia. You have the strongest support from all of us here in Zentrader Blog. Good luck.

Experts cautious on Malaysian oil pipeline

However, Fesharaki, an expert on Asia-Pacific energy markets and a former energy adviser to Iran's prime minister, downplayed rising energy demand in Asia. With the exception of China, demand for oil in the rest of the region is slowing because of higher prices, he said. "The pipeline assumes that demand will explode, but demand will not explode. That's the real story," he added.

Ghanimi Fard, the executive director for international affairs with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), said the success of the trans-peninsular pipeline would depend on the amount of oil demand from East Asia. "When we had a growing market for energy, it made sense but based on today's information ... we may not be as sure of the viability of this pipeline," he said. (Source: AFP)

Technical Note: Just like the Bakun Dam Project before, a simple solution is far too simple for a very complicated problem. Happy reading.

Composite Index

A skilful soldier is not militaristic. A skilful soldier does not get angry. They win but do not seek to conquer. Such capable people are humble. - Lao Tzu

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1352.44 & 1373.01 for direction.

The Bearish Bond Divergence

If the bond market's decline continues without significant interruption over the next few weeks then a knock-on effect will almost certainly be a sharp stock market correction. However, a short-term bottom might have just been put in place in the bond market; in which case the probability of the stock market experiencing a sharp near-term correction has been reduced.

The current bearish divergence between stocks and bonds will have to be eliminated, too, one way or the other. Here, in our opinion, are the three most likely ways:

1. The bond market soon commences an intermediate-term rally to bring itself into line with the stock market

2. The stock market corrects sharply over the coming 1-2 months, thus bringing itself into line with the bond market

3. In a variation of the 1987 story, bonds make a short-term bottom this month and the overall divergence continues to build for a few more months. Then, a breakdown in the bond market (a break below this month's low) later this year pushes stocks into a cyclical bear market. (read more...)

Composite Index

Clay walls are moulded into a pot, but the usefulness of the pot lies in its emptiness. - Lao Tzu

KLCI to monitor 1352.44 & 1373.01 for direction.

Malaysia's Economy May Not Improve

(Monday June 11, 2007 Bloomberg) -- Malaysia's economic growth may not improve in the second quarter because a slowdown in exports is worsening, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research said. ``It's very clear that the slowdown is actually deepening in the second quarter,'' Mohamed Ariff Kareem, the institute's executive director, told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today. ``The second quarter performance may not be better than the first quarter performance.'' (Source: Bloomberg)

Economic 101 - Business Cycle (Friday, April 27, 2007)
ZenTrader Said: " I think economically the business cycle of Malaysia is already peaked and to be followed by a contractional period. The transition from Peak to Trough could be in orderly manner or in panic mode. The real answer is I don't know." (read more...)

ZenTrader's Note: You are reading the same economic news two months ahead. I think this is another good reason why you are invited to visit this blog from time to time to read more about ZenTrader's interesting trading idea or economic analysis. Happy reading.

Composite Index

You can conquer others with power, But it takes true strength to conquer yourself. - Lao Tzu

KLCI to monitor 1352.44 & 1373.01 for direction.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1352.44 & 1373.01 for direction. Technically speaking, the longer the sideway movement, the more powerful the breakout will be. Which way, I think my own answer will be as good as your own answer. Last Friday trading, the market closed at 1352.39 and was only few points away from my water level. Is this Coincidence or something is out there just that we don't know it is there? Happy reading.

Composite Index

It is important KLCI to hold firmly above 1362.73 water level today (Fri) and next day (Mon) trading.

Love is in the air: A woman completes a man

Love is in the air: The Prime Minister was all smiles yesterday after the announcement that he will marry Jeanne Abdullah (above) on Saturday.

To a question whether his life would be more meaningful with Jeanne as his wife, he said: “How can it not be meaningful? That is God's will. A woman completes a man.”

“A happy Prime Minister can do a lot of good work. I'm not saying I've not been happy so far, but I'm happier with a companion now,” he added cheekily. (Source: The Star)

Technical Note: The wind cannot sing without the wind bell! We need a happy PM to move our country forward and the first family picture is now totally taken care of whether outside the house or inside the house. See the big picture? Another hidden code solved.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1362.73 & 1373.01 for direction.

Composite Index

Lao Tsu taught that all straining, all striving are not only vain but counterproductive. One should endeavor to do nothing (wu-wei). But what does this mean? It means not to literally do nothing, but to discern and follow the natural forces -- to follow and shape the flow of events and not to pit oneself against the natural order of things. First and foremost to be spontaneous in ones actions. (read more..)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1373.01 for direction.

Composite Index

"Being and nonbeing create each other." - Lao Tsu

Technical Note: It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1352.44 level today (Tues) trading.

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1352.44 level today (Mon) and tomorrow (Tues) trading.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1319.14 & 1352.44 for direction.