Warren Buffett: 'I told you so'

If investment guru and billionaire Warren Buffett had just one message for investors following the bursting of the internet bubble, it could be: "I told you so."

"After a heady experience of that kind," he said, "normally sensible people drift into behaviour akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities... will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice." (read more...)

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1231.97 level today (Fri) and next day (Mon) trading.

Are you ready?

Russian intelligence sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf. (read more...)

Iran builds up military strength at mouth of Gulf

Pentagon sources say Iran is building up its military strength around the mouth of the Gulf, thereby increasing its capability of shutting off one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

If the United States were to consider launching a Tomahawk cruise-missile strike against Iran in retaliation for international terrorism, military sources say the first sign would be the quiet exodus of U.S. Navy ships from the Gulf.

The reason: Unless the United States neutralized Iran in a large-scale attack, Iran's military could effectively block off the mouth of the Gulf, trapping U.S. warships inside. (read more...)

Note: I think Iran is holding a winning card. It is different phase. Right! But it is for the oil market and enought to spin the world economy into different phase. I thin they are asking the world ... are you ready for the different phase? Happy trading.

Composite Index

The Trojan War was a war waged, according to legend, against the city of Troy in Asia Minor by the armies of Greece, following the kidnapping (or elopement) of Helen of Sparta by Paris of Troy.(read more...)

Tactical Note: KLCI to monitor 1231.97 for direction.

LUNAR ECLIPSE 2007

We must remember though that the eclipse ACG lines 'spin' right around the globe and entire path is sensitised. So equally, Central and South American locations, and then on around to China, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia, could yet find the eclipse manifesting in ways that catch them unaware. (read more...)

A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
If we look at the helio chart for the economic crash of 1929, (see headlines and chart above) lo and behold Saturn was in exact trine to Neptune which was conjunct Venus, so the 3 main players in the correspondence to 'economic collapse' were in tight association or resonance. In the geo chart Saturn and Neptune were separated by over 6 degrees in an out of sign trine aspect.

The other major meltdown occurred on Black Monday 1987. Neptune was 18 degrees + from it's conjunction with Saturn and in no known aspect, either heliocentrically or geocentrically but the two planets were linked by less than one degree in declination ( you obviously can't have declination with the helio system) forming a parallel. Venus was conjoined with Pluto. (read more...)

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1252.54 for direction.

Subprime fiasco to trigger Stock Market Crash

Casey gives an apt summary of our present predicament. There is currently $370 trillion in derivatives, hedge funds and over-leveraged marginal investments. There is no coherent relationship between this mass of cyber-wealth and actual deposits or investments. It is merely a fractional banking scam on steroids; computer-generated capital with no basis in reality. As the sub prime market comes under greater strain; hedge funds will teeter, derivatives will tremble, liquidity will dry up and the whole debt-plagued system will crash in a heap. The frantic efforts of the PPT with their flimsy bits of scaffolding will amount to nothing. Wall Street is quick-stepping towards the gallows and there's little hope of a reprieve.

High-flying US fund manager Jim Rogers summed up the impending crisis like this:

“You can't believe how bad it's going to get. It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops. Real estate prices will go down 40-50% in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. And it'll be worse this time because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history.”

Then he added ominously, “When markets turn from bubble to reality, a lot of people get burned.” (read more...)

Composite Index

31. If the enemy sees an advantage to be gained and makes no effort to secure it, the soldiers are exhausted. (Source: Sun Tze)

Sales of New Homes Fall Sharply
Citigroup May Reportedly Cut 15,000 Jobs
Oil Prices Settle at High for 2007

Technical Note: It is important that the market to hold firmly above 1231.97 level today (Tue) trading. As Mr. Lego said the newsflow in the States were interesting. Home sale down, job cut and oil prices up ... No wonder Alan Greenspan can see something that we all cannot see.

Vietnam’s Roaring Economy Is Set for World Stage

In the three decades since Vietnam has gone from communism to a form of capitalism, it has begun surpassing many neighbors. It has Asia’s second-fastest-growing economy, with 8.4 percent growth last year, trailing only China’s, and the pace of exports to the United States is rising faster than even China’s.

American companies like Intel and Nike, and investors across the region, are pouring billions of dollars into the country; overseas Vietnamese are returning to run the ventures.

“I think they are the next China,” said Michael R. P. Smith, chief executive of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation. “It’s not the scale of China, but it’s a significant economy.”

Through the end of last year; Vietnam’s growth rate exceeded that of Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea and even India, its closest rival.

Like China and India, Vietnam has benefited enormously from the return of a diaspora — people who had fled the country. Thousands of overseas Vietnamese have come home after learning English, gaining entrepreneurial experience and acquiring technical skills.

Phu Than, Intel’s country manager for Vietnam and Indochina, was 14 when he was evacuated in the last days before the fall of Saigon, leaving by helicopter with his mother, an employee of the old American Consulate in Danang.

He earned an electrical engineering degree from the University of California, Davis, then joined Intel and now oversees the largest foreign investment in Vietnam, the construction of a semiconductor assembly and test factory that will cost $300 million for the first phase and another $300 million for a likely expansion later.

American businesses are catching on to Vietnam’s attractions, but they still lag behind Taiwan companies, which are the biggest foreign investors in Vietnam, followed by Singapore.

Vietnam’s appeal to foreign companies rests on its young labor pool. Three-fifths of its 84 million people are under 27. And with a policy of limiting families to two children, as distinct from China’s one, Vietnam will continue for many years to have a large proportion of hard-working low-skill employees. (read more...)

Composite Index

After crossing a river, you should get far away from it. When an invading force crosses a river in its onward march, do not advance to meet it in mid-stream. It will be best to let half the army get across, and then deliver your attack. (Source: Sun Tzu)

Tactical Note: It is important that the market to hold firmly above 1231.97 level today (Mon) and tomorrow (Tue) trading. The big boy is trying to hide their moves as I think they know something that we all - including Mr. PM - don't know. Mr. PM had said before CNY that the market will hit 1350 level. My opinion is that either Mr. PM knows something that we all don't know or we all know something that Mr. PM maybe don't know (as by definition Mr. PM is not a trader). Last call ... no more bet! Happy trading.

My Meatball Soup Theory

Building a Modern Economy: How the 'Dubai CEO's' Big Bet Is Paying Off, for Now

The announcement that Halliburton, the Houston, Tex.-based oil services company, was moving its headquarters to Dubai may have surprised many Americans.

... the billionaire known today as "Dubai's CEO," Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, have invested heavily in the infrastructure of a modern economy. They have built a first-class port, airport and airline; created lightly regulated enterprise zones to foster the development of new industries and attract foreign firms; and spent lavishly on amenities ranging from the white, sail-shaped Burj al Arab, the world's tallest hotel, to an indoor ski slope chilled to about 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

"Sheikh Mohammed has been a real visionary," says Todd Millay, executive director of the Wharton Global Family Alliance. "The biggest decision he has made is to create a very free economy. It's true laissez faire without many of the regulations we have in the U.S."

The mix of infrastructure, economic freedom and tolerance is paying off as multinationals, including General Electric and AT&T, are increasingly selecting Dubai, which is about the size of Rhode Island, as their Middle Eastern base. Others, including Microsoft and Intel, have located sizeable offices there. (read more...)

************************************************


ZenTrader's economic analysis: I think our pet project is based more on the blueprint of Dubai rather than Hong Kong. But do we have the derived advantage of Dubai? I think my personal view is no. The success of Dubai is not the story of Dubai but more on its surrounding environment/development. Dubai stands out because of the economic/political weakness in other middle east country and Sheikh Mohammed has been visionary enough to turn someone else's weakness into his own strength. Dubai is Dubai because if you go middle east to extract oil you setup your HQ peacefully in Dubai and in that region there is no second Dubai called Home.

As far as our pet project is concern, do we see weakness in other people lands so that we can turn their weakness into our own strength? I don't know. You tell me.

My final conclusion is that everyone know how to make a meatball but to cook & serve an internationally yammy meatball soup it is another story. My grandmother used to tell me the trick is not so much on the making of the meatball but the secret recipe is more on the mix of the soup. If we don't have comparative advantage and the best we can sell is our meatball but not our whole bowl of meatball soup.

Soup of the Day ...

Trading Note: I think this is confirmed that no one in this world can predict the future event. Happy trading.

Forecaster sees active Atlantic hurricane season

MIAMI (Reuters) - The Atlantic hurricane season will be exceptionally active this year, according to a British forecasting group, raising the possibility that killer storms like Hurricane Katrina could again threaten the United States.

London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday said the six-month season, which begins on June 1, was expected to bring 17 tropical storms, of which nine will strengthen into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour.

Four of those are expected to become more destructive "intense" hurricanes, TSR said.

The long-term average for the Atlantic is for 10 storms to form during the hurricane season and for six of those to reach hurricane strength. (read more...)

Note: Kung Fu Master Stands on One Finger? FED's chairman better watch out. They have problem not only from land (subprime) but on the sky (hurricane) as well.

Composite Index

Sun Tzu said: Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted. Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him.

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1231.97 for direction.

Economic Blackhole

The Cycle of Debt and Energy

The cycle of debt and energy helps explain World War I ... the Great Depression ... World War II ... and the price surges of the late 1970s.

Each new economic cycle in the U.S. begins with low debt, high savings, low energy costs and low interest rates. Each cycle ends with huge, unwieldy debts, low savings, high energy costs and high interest rates.

The far bigger and more powerful force is credit inflation -- big debts. It's credit inflation that drives up demand for energy. And it's credit inflation that ultimately drives up interest rates. (read more...)

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1198.67 level today (Thur) trading.

Kung Fu Master Stands on One Finger

Via: VideoSift

ZenTrader's Technical Note: See the big picture or not?

Why I say ROI 20% per annum is no big deal

Fusion Trader Said: "For those who know me, you must have seen my postings about ROI 20% pa is not a problem. Some may think I am crazy. Some may think I am boastful. But since I have launched this blog, allow me to share my observation and experience in KLSE." (visit fusion trader blog here ...)

Comment: I think this blog master can see something that we all don't see.

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1198.67 level today (Wed) and tomorrow (Thur) trading.

In China : The pension money is running out

China faces an unintended consequence of its population engineering: Its "one child" policy has resulted in a rapidly aging nation. So its social security fund is almost out of cash. The consequences could be extremely destabilizing.

China's social welfare commitments are large. The government says its total obligations are between $122 and $244 billion. All other estimates are higher.

Bank of China International says the total funding shortfall is around $850 billion. Some foreign observers believe that it approaches $1 trillion, just about equal to China's annual gross domestic product. Privately, analysts at one multilateral institution have been saying that the correct figure could be as high as 125 percent of GDP. (read more...)

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1198.67 for direction.

The King of Borneo Jungle

Bursa Malaysia Announcement: TSH RESOURCES BERHAD dated 05/12/2006
The Board of Directors of TSH would like to inform that the Company has on 5 December 2006 acquired a total of 10,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each, representing 10% shareholding in Sinora Industries Berhad, a company listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia via off-market transaction at a total consideration of RM10,000,000 or RM1.00 per share.

Sinora is listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia under Industrial Products sector. Its major shareholder is Innoprise Corporation Sdn Bhd ("Innoprise") with a 56% shareholding. Innoprise is a wholly owned subsidiary of Yayasan Sabah, a Sabah State Government Agency.

The acquisition will provide the Company the opportunity to further invest in oil palm plantation segment and in the longer term contribute significantly to the Group's profitability. (read more...)

Bursa Malaysia Announcement: SINORA INDUSTRIES BERHAD dated 18/11/2005
On behalf of the Board of Directors of Sinora ("Board"), we are pleased to announce that Serijaya, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sinora, had on 18 November 2005 entered into an Agreement for Oil Palm Plantation with Benta ("Agreement") for the proposed development of approximately 22,763 hectares of land located in the locality of Gunung Rara/Kalabakan, Sabah ("Development Land") with an estimated net plantable area measuring approximately 20,000 hectares into an oil palm plantation ("Proposed Development of Oil Palm Plantation"). (read more...)

Main players in plantation forestry - Innoprise Corporation Sdn. Bhd.
Innoprise Corporation Sdn. Bhd. (ICSB) was established as the investment arm of the Sabah Foundation and the holding management company in diverse business interests. In 1984, the already large concession of the Foundation was expanded to a single block of 972 804 ha - about one-seventh of the landmass of Sabah. This area was later divided into two main portions, the concession proper and Benta Wawasan Sdn. Bhd., a wholly-owned company of ICSB, which is to embark on a large-scale industrial tree plantation. These, together with Sabah Softwood Bhd., another ICSB majority-owned subsidiary, make ICSB Sabah’s biggest forest management company, with a total forest area of over one million ha. (read more...)

Campaign against plantation and pulp mill project in Sabah
A plantation project that would occupy about 3% of the area of Sabah, in northern Borneo, and provoke the clearcutting of 6% of its dwindling primary forests is being promoted in Kalabakan by a joint-venture between the State-owned company Innoprise Corporation Sdn Bhd, Lions Group of Malaysia and the China Fuxing Pulp and Paper Industries of China. The plantation and pulp and paper mill megaproject, whose cost has been evaluated in U$S 1.1 billion, will require the felling of 240,000 hectares of forest to be replaced by a massive monoculture plantation of black wattle trees (Acacia mangium) --also known as dry acacia or mangium tree-- a fast growing tree native to Australia. (read more...)

Note:If Innoprise Corporation Sdn. Bhd. is the King of Borneo Jungle, then I think TSH (9059) is the little beautiful lady in the movie?

The "Second Wave" HOUSING TSUNAMI

Dr. Robert Schiller, the same bestselling author and Stanford economist who called the tech stock bust back in his 2001, recently analyzed 116 years of U.S. housing data.

Take a look at this chart showing what he discovered...

Composite Index

After crossing a river, you should get far away from it. When an invading force crosses a river in its onward march, do not advance to meet it in mid-stream. It will be best to let half the army get across, and then deliver your attack. (Source: Sun Tzu)

KLCI to monitor 1198.67 & 1144.80 for direction.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1198.67 & 1144.80 for direction.

Clearwire's path to profit not so clear

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The speedy wireless Internet technology known as Wimax may have a promising future, but some new investors in Clearwire Corp., a Wimax provider that went public last week, are having flashbacks of an unpleasant past.

The company's stock fell 11% in its first week of public trading, as large numbers of investors who bought Clearwire IPO shares on Thursday turned around and sold them before the weekend.

"They spent themselves out of business by trying to build a network," Lin said. (read more ...)

Note: Clearwire closed US$20.76 last night trading versus its IPO price of US$25. Locally our hot wimax play ie YTLE (0009) is expected to get his Wimax ticket tomorrow and based on chart I see double top formation but technically using my naked eyes only ... just for your info here. Happy trading.

See you in May?

In May, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will be visiting Malaysia where he is scheduled to hold a retreat with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and his cabinet colleagues. (Source: Bernama)


... and I think we will see some very interesting Souvenir Gift from Mr. Lee! Maybe is the best time to catch big fish too? Happy trading.

Composite Index

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. (Source: SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1198.67 & 1144.80 for direction.

Kajang Satay

Tom Yam Soup Recipe, Peking Duck Dinner, Japan's Sashimi, US Sirloin Steak,

Kajang Satay? (Are Najib’s days numbered? Source: Malaysia Today)

Comment: I think very soon they will serve Kajang Satay? I think this will be the next shock wave to hit Bursa Malaysia and also those politically linked counters.

Composite Index

KLCI failed to hold firmly above 1198.67 level and buying pressure dried up at level near 1213.32 on yesterday trading. Something is there but just that we don't know it is there.

New Century on bankruptcy's doorstep

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New Century Financial Corp. (NEW.N: Quote, Profile , Research), the largest independent U.S. subprime mortgage lender, said on Monday its lenders plan to halt financing, pushing the company closer to bankruptcy amid dwindling cash and $8.4 billion in obligations that could come due immediately.

"The value of their assets is questionable, because they probably have exposure on the subprime (asset-backed securities) they issued," said Steve Persky, principal at Dalton Investments, which manages $1 billion in assets. "... They've said their accounting can't be relied on, so it looks like New Century is toast." (read more...)

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1213.32 for direction but it is important that the market to close firmly above 1198.67 level today (Tues) and tomorrow (Wed) trading.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1198.67 for direction.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1198.67 for direction. When Greenspan talks I think we better listen because he was once ranked as the most powerful man on earth. See the big picture?

Greenspan says carry trade has limited room to run

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A popular investment strategy where investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere can only continue for so long, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday.

The strategy, known as the yen carry trade, is still going strong, but "at some point it's got to turn," Greenspan told a trading technology conference. (read more...)

Comment: I think the whole world is sashimized by Tokyo Bank. They just love to eat bloody raw fish with wasabi.

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1126.15 level today (Thur) trading.

Could Tremors in the Subprime Mortgage Market Be the First Signs of an Earthquake?

Some suggest that the growing number of borrower defaults in the "aggressive lending" market, which includes various types of risky mortgages besides subprime loans, could shock the broader housing market and economy after all. Many subprime borrowers are paying 10% to 12%, compared to 6% to 8% on standard, or "prime," loans, and delinquencies are rising.

One of the largest subprime players, HSBC Holdings, announced early in February that bad debts had exceeded a staggering $10.5 billion in 2006, sending shivers through the industry. "What other cases are out there like that?" Wachter asks. "We don't know." (read more...)

Falling Dollar and Yen Carry Trade

What I am suggesting is that bond speculators are calling the shots, and central bankers willy-nilly play balls with them. The alternative is sudden death. Without bond speculation the regime of irredeemable currencies would have come to a sad end thirty years ago. Speculators well-understand the dynamics of competitive currency devaluations. The present round started ten years ago when the yen was devalued 50%. In the intervening years the ruble collapsed along with other Asiatic currencies. Right now it is the turn of the dollar. It will be interesting to watch whether and when the euro will succumb to the temptation, as I predict it will, in spite of the brave talk we are hearing from Brussels. This is just a replay of the 1930's with the yen playing the role of the leading currency. To recapitulate, if the yen carry-trade was profitable during the last ten years of a weak yen, then it would be a hundred times more profitable during the next ten years of a strong yen.

It is a mistake to look at the falling dollar as the result of the profligacy of the American consumers, and a direct outcome of the American trade deficit. This is just a decoy. Admittedly, it is a clever one as far as decoys go. It is designed to divert attention away from the real culprit, which is the yen carry-trade and its obscene profits. The falling dollar is part of the big picture of competitive currency devaluations, or of the even bigger picture of the Kondratiev cycle. But let us not forget that at the same time it is a powerful booster for the yen carry-trade. Let the public buy the nonsense of Milton Friedman that the falling dollar is just the manifestation of the adjustment mechanism balancing the American trade account. Or let it buy the equally fallacious Quantity Theory of Money predicting that the dollar will be printed into worthlessness. The truth is that there is an insatiable demand for dollars, especially for falling ones, by bond speculators.

According to the 19th century French economist Frederic Bastiat, economics is a game of distilling what you don’t see from what you do. In the present case what you see is the American trade deficit, which can easily be blamed on the appetite of the gluttonous American consumer. What you don’t see is the accumulating profits of the faceless bond speculators, sucking the life-blood from the world economy. This is exactly the same point that was missed in the Great Depression of the 1930's by all economists. They are going to miss it again. The world is going to repeat all the mistakes it made then, because it has allowed the government and the economists’ profession to fabricate a theory of the Great Depression that puts the blame squarely on the gold standard. The price has to be paid for pushing gold out, not just from the monetary system, but also from the research agenda of universities and think-tanks! (read more...)

Composite Index

It is important that KLCI to hold firmly above 1126.15 level today (Wed) and tomorrow (Thur) trading. Expect to see more fun movements from these heavyweight Sumo Carry Play. Happy trading.

Composite Index

KLCI to monitor 1126.15 for direction.

Composite Index

24. EXCESS

He who stretches beyond his natural reach, does not stand firmly
upon the ground; just as he who travels at a speed beyond his means, cannot maintain his pace. (Source: Taoism)

Technical Note: KLCI to monitor 1144.80 & 1126.15 for direction.

Composite Index

Anonymous said: "zen,how market ci now?heard someone said still got another hyperbull soon..u think market turn bear?tq."

Zentrader said: "Mr. Anon, the real answer is I don't know. My view is that if KLCI to breakdown below 1028.12 I would say that in my own personal view we have crossed the Bear Zone. Just my view only as I really cannot predict the future world."

Mr. Bean

Mr. Bean often seems unaware of basic aspects of the way the world works, and the programme usually features his attempts at what would normally be considered simple tasks, such as going swimming, redecorating or taking an exam. The humour largely comes from his original solutions to any problems and his total disregard for others when solving them. (Source: Wikipedia)

Note: BTW, Zentrader is a big fan of Mr. Bean! :)

Coincidence or Conspiracy?

The market hit highest high at 1285.15 and Zentrader's Blog said KLCI to monitor 1285.84 for direction. The two numbers are too close to be merely an event of coincidence. Something is there but just that we don't know it is there.