Singapore Exchange close to listing its first hedge fund

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX) hopes to have up to 20 hedge funds listed on its bourse by year-end, and is searching as far abroad as Japan, Australia and Europe for candidates, exchange officials said last Friday. Hedge funds are lightly regulated investment pools that invest in ways not available to more traditional funds, such as selling short and borrowing to amplify returns. Source: Business Times

Composite Index

CI to monitor 937.16 for direction. If the market to close above this level today it is important that tomorrow and next day's trading to hold firmly above this level. It is interesting to note that our old friend Mr. RSI is telling us an old story again.

Buy Signal for Stocks

The Big Picture for Stocks: The 4-year cycle calls for a bear market bottom in 2006.

Our Technical Trendicator for stocks gave a buy signal today July 24. I have also noted that a large percentage of money managers and analysts on CNBC have given bearish views lately. Always looking for the contrary view, these are indications that the market is sold out near term. It is not likely that this is the end of the bear market. I expect another drop to new lows later in the year as we get further weakening of the economic data, especially from the consumer sector. But for now, things look OK. The chances of a pause by the fed is very high now, which would be more fuel for a rally. Read more ...

Is the Art Market Painting a Picture of the Stock Market?

The art market has done it again, producing a new all-time high price for a single painting in the aftermath of an important stock market peak. At $135 million, Gustav Klimt’s “Adele Bloch-Bauer” became the highest price ever paid for a painting. It seems that paintings should be listed on ‘things’ that have again become the object of investors’ affections.

But what does this trend in the art market mean for the stock market? According to The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, tastes in art progress from traditional in a healthy bull market to “anything goes” in a bear market. But how does this latest art market frenzy fit into the picture? Start reading the exclusive report now

Composite Index

CI to monitor 937.16 for direction but it is important that today and next day's trading to hold firmly above 926.88 level. But our very old good friend Mr. RSI is telling us the same old story again.

Composite Index

CI was holding firm above 916.59 level and then moved all the way up to test 930 level. Look at the RSI, it sure looked like our 'old friend' is visiting us this time again. Happy trading.

Time (4456)

Technical Note: Traders watch for double tops or what Wilder referred to as "failure swings." If the RSI makes a double top formation, with the first top above 70% and the second top below the first, you get a sell signal when the RSI falls below the level of the dip.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction but it is important that today and next Monday's intraday trading to hold firmly above 916.59 level.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction but it is important that next Friday and Monday's intraday trading to hold firmly above 916.59 level.

Temasek balks at Rosneft stake

Temasek, the Singaporean state investment company, spurned the chance to acquire a large stake in Rosneft’s $10.4bn initial public offering after deciding the shares in the Russian state-controlled company were over-valued.

Temasek’s decision contrasts with that of Petronas, Malaysia’s oil and gas giant, which bought a $1.1bn stake in Rosneft. One banker said: “For Temasek, this was about whether the shares were good value. For Petronas, it was more about getting on the right side of the Russians. It had no exposure to Russia.” FT.com

ChartNexus® — Financial Charting Software

ChartNexus® is a stand-alone, financial charting software used for analysing the behaviour of the stock market. It allows you to chart the trend of stocks based on historical stock closing price. Using technical analysis as the underlying basis for the charting tool, you can then make better prediction of the targeted price for buying or selling stocks.

And best of all ... ChartNexus® is provided FREE OF CHARGE for your own uses.

Tebrau

Technical Note: Tebrau (1589) is expected to make a powerful breakout price action.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 916.59 for direction. If the market cannot hold strongly above 883 level, it is expected to see very violent price action from there.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 883 for direction.

Composite Index

CI to monitor closely for 883 level and failure to hold above this level will see very violent price action.

Please take note that two weeks ago I already said this to my readers here: "CI to monitor 926.88 for direction. In a bear market when RSI makes new highs, but price does not follow. This Negative Reversal forecasts lower prices"

Trading Day

Last Friday (7 July 06) I said: "CI to monitor 926.88 for direction. In a bear market when RSI makes new highs, but price does not follow. This Negative Reversal forecasts lower prices"

Thursday (13 July 06) I said: "CI to monitor 926.88 for direction and it is important that intra-day trading will be able to hold above this level for today and tomorrow or else the breakout will be in doubt."

Friday (today, 14 July 06) CI mid-day trading closing down -8.5 points at 918.05 and I am sure from now on you will have good reason to come back here from time to time to read more about my Zen's future prediction.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction. The Negative Reversal based on RSI analysis forecasted a lower price ahead but it will be invalided if the market were to close above 935.39 level.

Secrets Of The Plunge Protection Team

1. "The government has a real role to play to make a 1987-style sudden market break less likely. That is an issue we all spent a lot of time thinking about and planning for," said a former government official who attended Working Group meetings. "You go through lots of fire drills and scenarios. You make sure you have thought ahead of time of what kind of information you will need and what you have the legal authority to do."
   
   Source: The Washington Post
   
   
2. Their account is backed up by considerable indirect evidence, as well as statements by credible insiders. If their account is correct, it means that US markets look a lot like the Japanese markets that were long derided for being subject to repeated official manipulation. A more important conclusion may be that US markets are even shakier than many believe.
   
   Source: Asia Times Online
   
   
3. There are just four people who control all of the U.S. markets through their use of dangerous and explosive DERIVATIVES. They are risking the assets and retirement funds of all Americans. Because of their manipulations, especially since 2001, U.S. financial markets are now based on the gambling whims of a special fraternity of Federal Government DERIVATIVE dealers.
   
   Get out of the markets before the inflated DERIVATIVE bubble bursts.
   
   The pre-911 U.S. markets showed an astounding - yet confounding and puzzling - rise for the 4 months proceeding 911. The U.S. media dubbed it a "patriotic rally". The European Press called it a "PPT [Plunge Protection Team] rally". Obviously, the U.S. markets were manipulated and rigged to an inflated value in advance of the 911 disaster. Was this a coordinated measure in anticipation of what was to come? Only The Powers That Be can answer that question directly. Since 911, there have been at least three major long-term stock market rallies. In all 3 instances, when the markets opened all the indexes began to quickly plunge. In each incidence, by early afternoon the markets were brought back from the brink of collapse to the surprise of everyone, including historical analysts.
   
   Source: Secrets Of The Plunge Protection Team

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction and it is important that intra-day trading will be able to hold above this level for today and tomorrow or else the breakout will be in doubt.

Dow Theory

Another very very important and often over looked aspect of the Dow theory that very few understand is the phasing of bull and bear markets. The great Dow theorist E. George Schaefer stated: "There are three principle phases of a bear market: the first represents the abandonment of the hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices; the second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the third is caused by distressed selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets."

These words are merely a guideline and here too the application of this concept is where the art and the science meet. The great Dow theorist of the 1930's, Robert Rhea, described the three phases of the bear market in a very similar way. More importantly, Rhea goes on and states: Each of theses phases seems to be divided by a secondary reaction which is often erroneously assumed to be the beginning of a bull market. Does this sound familiar or what? Rhea also states: " Such secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory." Read more ...

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction and it is critical that the market to close above this level this week. The Negative Reversal based on RSI analysis forcasted a lower price ahead but it will be invalided if the market were to close above 935.39 level.

North Korea's July 4th Display:

The launches sent jitters throughout the international community, reminding the world that North Korea is unpredictable, skilled at brinksmanship and may be capable of building at least two nuclear bombs. A different threat comes from North Korea's budding nuclear-weapons program. Experts know North Korea has extracted enough plutonium from spent nuclear fuel rods to produce between two and nine nuclear weapons, though it is unclear if any have actually been built. Also, intelligence officials think North Korea could be on the road to enriching uranium, which would allow it to create more nuclear weapons, but they don't know how far along the enrichment program is. Since North Korea is strapped for cash, officials worry it will resort to selling nuclear material to terrorists or rogue nations, notably Iran. WSJ.com

Corrections or Bear Markets in Asset Prices, Part II

YESTERDAY'S EDITION is a long-term forecast. Near term, I envision a scenario whereby credit growth slows down and the economy moves into either a very low-growth or recessionary phase.

Why? Since US debt growth has driven asset prices higher in the last few years and allowed US households to extract funds from their assets in order to sustain increasing consumption, it is likely that home and stock prices, which will no longer rise and more likely may go down, will have a pronounced impact on economic growth rates. In this respect, it is important to understand the following. While the Fed fund rate has increased from 1% in June 2004 to 5% at present, lending standards in the housing industry have continued to decline.

The Hindenburg omen sell signals occur only seldom. They indicate a highly unstable stock market. Whereas their record is not perfect, Hindenburg omen sell signals preceded the crash of October 1987, the Long-Term Capital Management collapse of 1998, and the bursting of the "Internet bubble" in 2000.

Furthermore, I was pleased to read that, last year, some of my friends earned in excess of US$500 million. (According to the Financial Times of May 26, 2006, the top 26 hedge fund managers earned US$363 million, on average, in 2005.) As I indicated in earlier reports, whenever there is a concentration of earnings in one sector of the economy - in this case, among us "money shufflers" - and our great achievements make headlines in the media, the end is near for that sector! Read more ...

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction. The Negative Reversal based on RSI analysis will be invalided if the market were to move above 935.39!

Corrections or Bear Markets in Asset Prices?

The most frequently asked questions came from India, where the market sold off within a few days by 20% from its high (it has since recovered modestly), and from Middle Eastern investors who were stunned when their stock markets declined by about 50% from their peak in late 2005 (see Figure 1). The decline in the Middle Eastern markets is remarkable because it occurred in an environment of near-record oil prices and at a time when liquidity was still increasing.

But once an increasing quantity of money is channelled from the financial sector into real economic activity - in the case of the Middle East, into grandiose residential and commercial construction projects and Ferraris - stocks frequently begin to stall or to decline abruptly. I mention this fact because the consensus among investors is that the global economy is booming. It is certainly the case that the boom is unprecedented in the history of capitalism. Read more ...

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction. In a bear market when RSI makes new highs, but price does not follow. This Negative Reversal forecasts lower prices

Investment Commentary

Last week I said that according to many indicators and fundamental information that we are monitoring, the stock markets have entered very likely a cyclical bear market. Another confirmation of that working assumption was Thursday's violent rally. Such rallies are typical bear markets events, fueled by hysterical short covering of frightened traders sitting on too many short positions. Don't be fooled by a violent short-covering rally.

Despite this rally I would like to repeat last week's statement: many technical indicators are suggesting now, that the decline since May is much more than a mere correction and far from over. Be prepared for a new cyclical bear market into 2007 (possibly interrupted by the usual winter rally around year end). Read more ...

An Economy On Thin Ice

I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase. At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets, with damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates. We had a taste of that in the stagflation of the 1970s -- a volatile and depressed dollar, inflationary pressures, a sudden increase in interest rates and a couple of big recessions. Read more ...

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction.

Composite Index

CI to monitor 926.88 for direction if market can hold above 916.59 today.

Going beyond expectations

MAS likely to beat 2007 profit target Jala said he is planning to boost the number of code- sharing arrangement the company has to help increase revenue. The airline, he said, was currently in talks for a code-sharing agreement with Alitalia SpA, aiming to add flights to Southern Europe, Jala said. Malaysia Airlines will work this year on “improving our cash position, next year we’re focused quite heavily on the profit,” Jala said. “The third year is when we will talk a lot more about growth.

Viet tourism venture “Through cooperation with the Vietnam Administration of Tourism, we hope to share the cost of increasing the number of tourists from the United States and Europe,” he told reporters here yesterday. Tengku Adnan said he was confident that the country could achieve its target of 20.1 million tourist arrivals next year.

Technical Note: MAS (3786) monitor RM2.80 for direction.

Composite Index

The market managed to breakout from 916.59 level. Continue to monitor if CI can hold above 916.59 level for today and tomorrow tradings. After that I think the visibility will be improved. Happy trading.

Trading profits are often a function of luck

The true culprit in most trading failures is not the bias of the trader, but the lack of discipline to abort the trade at a predetermined amount of loss. In trading, profits are often a function of luck, but losses are always a matter of skill. What distinguishes pros from amateurs is that professional traders always know that they can either choose to exit an unsuccessful trade on their own terms or that choice can be made for them by the market. The markets are designed to constantly trick traders into abandoning profitable ideas. Prices will often retrace after breakouts or breakdowns and many novice traders will quickly discard their positions only to see prices follow the direction of the initial move for hundreds and possibly thousands of additional points. Only the best of the traders can endure this "shake out" process, which helps to explain the success of some of the great FX traders of the past like George Soros. Read more ...