Japan jobless rate falls to seven-year low

Takuji Aida, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan, said inflation would continue rising, leading to expected increases in interest rates later this year. Mr Aida said: “We have maintained that the first wave of upward price pressure comes from tightening supply and demand for goods and that the second wave comes from an increase in wages. It was arguably this first wave that brought the core CPI from around minus 1 per cent to 0 per cent. Now the second wave is about to hit.” Read more ...

The Wealth Illusion

The ultimate truth about inflation is that it always benefits the rich who are able to ride the inflationary wave by investing in assets, whereas the poor become even more impoverished as things continue to become more expensive. There is another crucial point I'd like to make. During highly inflationary times (such as now), the purchasing power of money declines against all asset-classes. In other words, if enough money is printed, despite a horrendous economy, stocks, bonds, property, commodities as well as collectibles may all rise at the same time. Such a rise in asset prices due to high inflation gives the ILLUSION of prosperity. Read more ...

Sticky Zone

Composite Index, 920-930 still a very sticky zone. Drop below it will pull the Index up and break above it will push Index down into this so called sticky zone.

Composite Index

Composite Index with Higher High & Higher Low trading pattern.

Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU)

Boyce says that recent transactions have valued natural gas reserves at $2.50 to $3 per thousand cubic feet. Peabody has the equivalent of 243 trillion cubic feet of natural gas potential in its coal reserves. “Yet we are valued at just five cents per thousand cubic feet. That’s just two percent of the value of some natural gas companies,” he says. Read More ...

Coal as Fuel of the Future

Funded for over nine years by the US Air Force, research at Penn State University has concluded that coal is more suited for high velocity flight because the conventional petroleum-based jet fuel cannot withstand the intense temperatures associated with supersonic flight. Petroleum-based fuels will breakdown under intense heat, which can be as high as 1,000Š C (about 1,800Š F) in hypersonic flight. These temperatures usually range under 315Š C (about 600Š F) during today's normal jet flights. more ...

Bid for U.K. port owner

An investment group composed of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, Goldman Sachs and the government of Singapore is considering a bid for Associated British Ports Holdings PLC, Goldman said Monday. Associated British Ports, the largest port operator in the U.K., currently has a market capitalization of 2.2-billion pounds ($4.5-billion Canadian). Read more ...

Composite Index

Composite Index to monitor 931.66 with good volume for trading direction.

Clouds form over India and Turkey

The two nations also have large and widening current-account deficits and other fundamental flaws that investors are conveniently ignoring as share prices keep rallying. India and Turkey are "two of the most crowded trades in emerging equity markets," according to Michael Hartnett, a global emerging markets strategist at Merrill Lynch in New York. Read more ...

Live & Learn

"Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever." - Mohatma Gandhi

Composite Index

Composite Index, Shooting Star

Trend Day

Several types of conditions lead to trend days, but most involve some type of contraction in volatility or daily range. In general, price expansion tends to follow periods of price contraction, the phenomenon being cyclical. The market alternates between periods of rest or consolidation and periods of movement, or markup/markdown. Volatility is actually more cyclical than is price. When a market consolidates, buyers and sellers reach an equilibrium price level -- and the trading range tends to narrow. When new information enters the marketplace, the market moves away from this equilibrium point and tries to find a new price, or "value" area. Either longs or shorts will be "trapped" on the wrong side and eventually forced to cover, aggravating the existing supply/demand imbalance. more ...

Timberwell

Timwell (7854) Wijaya Baru Global Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing raised his stake in another company, Timberwell Bhd, to 10.39% after he acquired 3.9 million shares on Feb 24. A filing to Bursa Malaysia shows that Tiong acquired the 6.4% stake in a direct deal. The shares were acquired at RM1.60 apiece or RM6.24 million. theedgedaily.com

Composite Index

Composite Index is ready to make a breakout move?

Bumi's thermal coal sale fires up interest in Indonesian reserves

Indonesia last year exported 124m tonnes of coal and overtook Australia as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. Moreover, in places such as central Kalimantan - Indonesia's portion of Borneo - the country still has large unexploited reserves that companies such as BHP-Billiton are looking at. "Coal is the new oil," says Michael Chambers, head of research at CLSA in Jakarta. "If you are serious about reducing reliance on Middle Eastern oil, then coal is the answer." more ...

No coal mining in Maliau Basin

“There is no reason for the Sabah government to prevent the prospecting of coal in the Maliau Basin,” said Dr Lim. “We can have monkeys on top and (mine) the coal underground,” he said in explaining he had seen such underground mining operations being carried out at a national park in Canada. When pointed out that a prospecting licence had been issued for Maliau Basin 15 years ago which led to a discovery of an estimated 200 million tons of coal, Dr Lim said: “We need detailed reports.” Read more ...

China - Waiting for the Post-Olympic Bubble?

Although considerable progress has been made in strengthening China’s banking system, the banks are not yet out of trouble. In the first quarter of 2005, China’s four largest banks reported a rise in problem real-estate loans of $8.7 billion (10% of their property loans). We can expect that those numbers are only going to increase due to the ongoing construction boom. The most exposed banks to real estate development are the country’s four largest - Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China. These account for 76% of all leading. more ...

What The U.S. Can Learn From Sasol

At a time of sky-high oil prices, Sasol Ltd. (SSL ), Secunda's owner, churns out 160,000 barrels of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel a day, enough to cover 28% of South Africa's needs, without using a single drop of crude oil, imported or otherwise. BusinessWeek

BI sees inflation down to 7%

BI Governor Burhanuddin Abdullah told reporters on the sidelines of an investment seminar Monday that the cancellation of the proposed power price hikes would help bring inflation down to a lower-than-expected level. Vice President Jusuf Kalla said last Friday that the planned power hikes might not be necessary if the government could find additional subvention funds for state power firm PT PLN to cover the costs of its operations this year, and the firm itself could improve its efficiency. Jakarta Post

PT Bumi Resources sells its prized coal mines

Indonesia's largest coal exporter says it will sell its prize assets -- 95% of PT Kaltim Prima Coal and all of PT Arutmin Indonesia and IndoCoal Resources Ltd. -- for $3.2 billion to a group of investors who include Jakarta-based PT Renaissance Capital Asia. Bumi is reportedly in merger talks with oil-and-gas firm PT Energi Mega Persada. The group says it is considering use the proceeds from this sale to build plants on Borneo or Sumatra that produce diesel from coal and palm oil crops. Read more ...

Trendlines

Uptrends consist of a series of successively higher highs and lows. Downtrends consist of a series of successively lower highs and lows. Trends can push and pull the price up or down. Markets can also enter a period of quiet stability where the price forms a horizontal line sideways across the page. A sideways trending market is normally a difficult market to trade for a profit. It can, however, set the stage for a sharp move once the sideways trend is broken (signalled by a price break through a well-established trendline). Read more ...

Composite Index

Composite Index is waiting for trending direction. See the big picture?

Old Man and the Sea by Ernest Hemingway

In a small fishing village in Cuba, Santiago, an old, weathered fisherman has just gone 84 days without catching a fish. On the 85th day, he is determined to catch a big, impressive fish. Finally, he feels something heavy tugging at one of his lines. A huge Marlin has found Santiago's bait and this sets off a very long struggle between the two. The Marlin is so huge that it drags Santiago beyond all other boats and people - he can no longer see land from where the fish drags him. The struggle takes its toll on Santiago. His hands become badly cramped and he is cut and bruised from the force of the fish. Read more ...

Ernest Hemingway, secret agent

Hemingway's articles were indeed heavy on analysis and light on colour, but taken together with his six-page letter to Morgenthau they reveal an incredibly quick read of the Asian situation before the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Hemingway only spent 11 weeks in Hong Kong, China and Burma, and he was drunk much of the time, yet he was able to piece together a compelling analysis of the political, economic and military forces at play in the Asian theatre. His friend, diplomat Addison Southard, said Hemingway's public and private reports from Asia no doubt helped the U.S. government greatly, but they may have helped another government as well. More ...

Cost to the global economy of a flu pandemic

World Bank estimates that the cost to the global economy of a flu pandemic would exceed $800 billion US, and a U.S. Congressional Budget Office prediction that an outbreak would shave five percentage points off U.S. annual GDP. That means an economy growing at five per cent a year would essentially stand still. By failing to prepare continuity plans, including ways to cope if a global flu outbreak closes borders and cuts transport routes, businesses are flirting with serious trouble, warns Perrin Beatty, president of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters. Read more ...

Bernanke dismisses fears of US slowdown

Mr Bernanke said low long-term rates were in part the result of a decline in the “term premium” investors demand for holding longer-dated securities. This was stimulating economic activity and requiring tighter monetary policy to offset the effect of overall looser financial conditions in the economy. Read more ...

Looking for a profitable alternative to oil?

So how can going back to coal be the right move? The process that turns it into other fuels actually has a long history. During the Second World War, Germany, rich in coal but poor in oil, deployed several technologies to produce synthetic fuel, including a process called Fischer-Tropsch. Factories turned coal into gas, and then into diesel and other distillates. Those coal gasification plants were targets of Allied air raids. Read more ...

Composite Index

By 20th April 2006, the Trendline will goto 925. And what is interesting is that 18th April 2006 marked the end of 89-day fibonacci trading cycle from the lowest low of 883 (2 December 2005). Well, can the market rally to outlive 89? Time will tell.

Vernal Equinox History and Traditions

People have been marking and celebrating the Vernal Equinox for thousands of years. The Great Sphinx which was constructed over 4500 years ago on the Giza Plateau in Egypt, faces due east on the Vernal Equinox. Read more ...

Egg-Balancing

Every year, on one particular day in early spring, you will witness a very strange spectacle indeed: people kneeling on pavements, people at tables and desks and counters, all trying to balance an egg on its end. Read more ...

Composite Index vs USD/MYR

Dow Ends Up 43 at 11,253 on Bullish Inflation Data

Wall Street welcomed the latest report from the Labor Department, which showed consumer prices rising just 0.1 percent in February, far less than the 0.7 percent jump in January. "Once again, we're seeing a reaction to soft economic data," said Jeff Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Financial Services Group in Philadelphia. "It seems to be the key to reducing worries about how aggressive the Fed is going to be going forward, which seems to be the catalyst for stocks here." Read more ...

Market Volatility

Market volatility can be scary because it definitely isn't normal: far too much keeps happening too far away from the average. The quick way to see that is to count the "big SD events" for short time frequencies like Daily or Monthly returns; they happen many orders of magnitude more often than what you get in a bell curve. Read more ...

White Horse’s debt facilities

White House Bhd (5009). As reflected in WHB’s financial results for FY Dec 2005, the Group’s turnover decreased 6% year-on-year to RM383.95 million, in tandem with the softer sentiments surrounding the local property market. At the same time, more expensive raw materials and heftier freight costs had squeezed WHB’s OPBDIT margin to approximately 27% vis-à-vis 31.09% in FY Dec 2004. Contrary to RAM’s expectations, WHB had not been able to maintain its OPBDIT margin above 30%. In view of the intense competition within the domestic tile industry, WHB has not been able to fully pass on its cost increases to consumers. Read more ...

Predicting Stock Market Crashes

However, when researchers looked at 2-month periods surrounding major crashes such as the Black Monday event of October 19, 1987, they saw a different story: Fluctuations of all magnitudes were equally probable. The bell-shaped probability distribution was gone. It was like the stock market prepared itself for switching from one normal distribution to another, different, normal distribution and in the process it needed to make all the fluctuations equally probable. Read more ...

Inflation's Effect on the Stock Market

Charles R. Nelson, an economics professor at University of Washington, has studied the impact of price inflation, as measured by the consumer price index. He's formulated the following trading rule: "When CPI inflation is on the rise, stay out of stocks; when CPI inflation is on the decline, buy stocks." Read more ...

TANGIBLE WEALTH

Human beings are totally dependent on commodities, period. Everybody needs food and clothing to survive as well as energy to go about the business of living. What amazes me though is how people know so little about commodities. Nobody seems to care and “things” are just taken for granted. Read more ...

Composite Index

Composite Index to monitor 931.66 with good volume for trading direction. Remember, historically (N = 9) the month of April is normally trending towards downside (6 down 3 up). But the market this time could be sucked up by RM/US$ exchange rate effect. No one can know for sure the net effect. Is this Bull Flag Pattern? Time will tell. Read more ...

Arab stock markets hit by losses

"I think we are now at a serious turning point ... . It is certainly the beginning of a crash though the market is expected to resist at 12,200 points," said Ali Dakkak, professor of economics at Jeddah-based King Abdulaziz University. Read more ...

Sabah set to gain from 9th Malaysia Plan

There are at least RM10bil worth of infrastructure project currently ongoing in East Malaysia in the areas of roads, water, health, housing and social services. Economic growth in Sabah has fallen behind the national average over the past few years. Read more ...

April Fool

April 97 -122.93
April 98 -93.55
April 99 172.14
April 00 -76.03
April 01 -62.98
April 02 37.89
April 03 -5.35
April 04 -63.64
April 05 7.61

Statistically the month of April is normally not a good month. 6 down 3 up on average of -23 points.

Head & Shoulders Bottom Reversal

Head and Shoulders patterns are among the most important of reversal patterns because they are both common and reliable. The head and shoulders bottom pattern consists of three declines and a breakout. Read more ...

Lenten Moon

March 14 Full Moon tonight at 23:35 UT. Called the "Sap Moon", "Crow Moon" or "Lenten Moon". Penumbral eclipse.

March 20 Spring or vernal equinox at 18:25 UT. The time when the Sun reaches the point along the ecliptic where it crosses into the northern celestial hemisphere marking the start of spring in the Northern Hemisphere and autumn in the Southern Hemisphere.

March 29 Total Solar Eclipse visible from parts of Brazil, northern Africa, and eastern Europe. Partial phases visible from much of Africa and Europe. Greatest totality (4 min 7 sec) occurs at Chad-Libya border at 10:11 UT.

Source: Sky Calendar -- March 2006

Shooting Star / Gravestone Doji Bearish

The market gaps open above the previous day’s close in an uptrend. It rallies to a new high then loses strength and closes near its low: a bearish change of momentum. Confirmation of the trend reversal would by an opening below the body of the Shooting Star on the next trading day. Read more ...

Beating the Odds for Trading Success: What Does It Take?

A relatively new trader summed up both my idea and these trader’s experiences. “I believe that one can only establish oneself as a force to be reckoned with in the marketplace once one feels natural, confident and comfortable with one’s personal trading style, discipline and trading plan, regardless of results of the trading,” he said. However, as many beginning traders know already, it can take a long time to get to that point. Read more ...

U.S. endorsed Iranian plans to build massive nuclear energy industry

According to Washington Post Staff Writer Dafna Linzer, “Ford’s team endorsed Iranian plans to build a massive nuclear energy industry, but also worked hard to complete a multibillion-dollar deal that would have given Tehran control of large quantities of plutonium and enriched uranium – the two pathways to a nuclear bomb. Read more ...

It all happens in 2008

So when will the crunch really come? History suggests that things will start to collapse in 2008 (18 years on from 1990 when the last bubble burst). But there are a few good reasons apart from the historical 18-year cycle that should make us think that the bubble will run to 2008. Read more ...

US warns of challenge from Iran

Washington has warned that Iran's nuclear programme is one of America's biggest challenges, and refused to rule out any option including military. Read more ...

The Singapore Clones

It is hard for any big nation to match the focus of a small city-state like Singapore. Temasek can restructure (read: cut jobs) easily in a quiet political culture. Indonesia and Malaysia are much more populous and unruly. "In that context they have to figure out what it means to set up an equivalent of Temasek and which sectors they will want to support and how they will carry out the intervention," says Dwor-Frecaut. Read more ...

New Hope in Germany

The trade mark "Made in Germany" may still be a mark of quality and distinction for the German export industry. It sells more goods in the world market than any other foreign competitor, valued at nearly $1 trillion in 2005. But many other German industries unfortunately have lost their luster; they stagnate or barely move but constitute an essential part of a new welfare system. The old welfare state rested on the common belief in a basic conflict between capital and labor, which spawned massive legislation for the protection and benefit of labor. Read more ...

How Japan Fell into the Hole

A balance-sheet recession is both inaudible and invisible, because companies with balance-sheet problems aren't eager to share that information with the outside world. Although repairing balance sheets is the right and responsible thing to do for individual corporations, when many companies simultaneously shift their priorities from profit maximization to debt minimization, Adam Smith's Invisible Hand reverses its normal direction and shrinks both the economy and the money supply. Read more ...

Composite Index

Hammer / Dragonfly Doji Bullish. Since the certainty for a Hammer indicator is low, the trend reversal can be confirmed by a higher open and an even higher close on the next trading day. If the open and the close are identical, the indicator is considered a Dragonfly Doji. The Dragonfly Doji has a higher reliability associated with it than a Hammer. Read more ...

Iran and Oil

If the conflict with Iran escalates then all the financial markets will be affected in a big way with the greatest positive effect likely to be seen in the oil market and the greatest negative effect likely to be seen in the stock market. And of these two markets we think the oil market will be the more reliable leading indicator of escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is because there are good reasons unrelated to Iran to anticipate a sizeable stock market decline over the coming 6 months, but for the oil price to move to new highs during 2006 it will probably have to garner a much larger geopolitical risk premium than currently exists. Read more ...

The Derivatives Mess

In our view the derivatives mess described above is another potential time bomb (among many) that could throw the financial markets into a severe crisis. In the last 30 years every period of monetary tightening has eventually led to financial crisis. These included the Penn Central bankruptcy in 1970; the Franklin National Bank failure in 1974; the First Pennsylvania bank failure in 1982; the Continental Illinois bank failure in 1984; the savings & loan crisis in 1990, the Mexican Peso crisis in 1994; the Asian, LTCM and Russian crises in 1998; and the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble in 2000. The derivatives market is a leading candidate to trigger the crisis on this cycle, although there are obviously many other candidates as well. Read more ...

Deals on the edge of the precipice

A downgrading of the creditworthiness of the bonds issued by Ford and General Motors to so-called junk status last May caused another big shock to the market. The two companies have bonds worth $450 billion (£259 billion) between them and the move triggered turmoil in both the market for the bonds and their credit derivatives. Once again this was resolved without the market failing but the Bank of International Settlements says the system came close to a serious meltdown. Read more ...

Composite Index Weekly Chart

Composite Index Weekly Chart. See the big picture?

US$1,300 Gold

The entire history of paper money is of ultimate disintegration. Paper just does not have staying power. It rots, mildews, burns, and can simply fall apart. The simple rule of government, or fiat, money needs to be remember. Governments influence the value of national monies to benefit the existing political power structure. In doing so, they transfer wealth from individuals to the government. Read more ...

Even the mighty Buffett sometimes has a weak run

"His bet on currencies hasn't worked, and reinsurance losses are likely," said Marshall Front, who manages $1 billion at Chicago-based Front Barnett Associates and sold the firm's shares of Berkshire during the fourth quarter. "Those will be formidable headwinds." Read more ...

Composite Index

Composite Index bollinger bands is contracting with lower band at 915. Average Directional Index indicates that upward pressure (blue line) is lossing strength and downward pressure (red line) is gaining momentum.

Plan A and B

On Tuesday I was expecting the market to follow plan A (so I said CI to swing upside) but after seeing the price action the following day, I then comment today that the market will be more likely to execute plan B. The big number that most traders waiting for in wednesday trading was 931.66. If the big boys were able to make a breakout from this critical point with good volume the story for today will be different.

Rule # 9. Closes outside the Bollinger Bands are continuation signals, not reversal signals. (This has been the basis for many successful volatility breakout systems.) Read more ...

Fibonacci numbers define key points in human aging

55, Elder adult Fulfillment of adult skills, serving, retirement begins with eligibility for Medicare, Social Security and AARP. 89, Completion Insight and wisdom into life (note: for our market age, refer to the chart I posted on New Chapter). Read more ...

Composite Index

Composite Index bollinger band is contracting with downward sloping stochastics. The next treding trend will be more on downside.

New Chapter

Today is the new trading fibonacci time zone. Monitor today's open (926.78) for trading direction. On the above chart, each of the candle marked with yellow color is a new trading fibonacci time zone.

Composite Index

Whipsaws emerge when a breakout can't generate an efficient reaction phase. This failure may or may not trigger a major reversal. The pullback shakes out weak hands and forces price back into resistance. But there's usually a healthy supply of buyers throughout the choppy movement. These bulls step in repeatedly to support the market. A successful breakout can begin quickly after a whipsaw fades out. The loss of volatility actually triggers a buying signal on many trading screens. This starts a bounce that generates the momentum needed to carry price up and beyond the last high. www.tradingday.com

False Breakouts And Whipsaws

What exactly are whipsaws? Simply stated, they're choppy price swings back and forth through common support or resistance levels. Natural tug and pull generates most whipsaws. But hidden hands also manipulate price through common stop levels in order to generate volume, and intentionally wash out one side of the market. Read more ...